Mereja Forum

[Axumezana]

Isaias is too desperate for failing to destroy TPLF and Abiy is too desperate for failing to stabilize Ethiopia and his sphere of control in Ethiopia is narrowing toward Addis Ababa. TPLF knows it can buy time by playing the peace card as per the Peace Agreement, while preparing itself for the worst which is the reinvasion of Tigray by Isaias with tacit approval of Abiy. Abiy and Isaias can not trust to each other which has given TPLF the opportunity to further divide them and use one against each other. The most probable scenario is TPLF and PP to form a tactical alliance with a shared goal of stabilizing Ethiopia and if Isaias fails to vacate Tigray/ Ethiopian lands jointly attacking him both toward Assab and Adi Halo. The end game is Isaias shall be toppled and Eritrea shall be like Libya and under Ethiopia's control.PP reinforced with TPLF will have the critical mass to stabilize Ethiopia and FANO and OLA will have no option but to agree on peaceful reconcilation with Abiy.