Mereja Forum

[Sadacha Macca]

The truth is, they are saying their IDP's are dying in camps, of hunger, thirst, etc, so them going to war is the easier path, in comparison to awaiting destruction. As a famous Muslim once said ''Beware of the wicked man when he is full and beware of the dignified man when he is starving.''
The Amara's, and yes, the Oromos my people too, are not as desperate, therefore they may not see the current situation as a existential one.
But, the tigrayans, or as the eritreans say, agames, do. Surrounded by foes, in their land that historically hasn't produced enough food for them all, they have little to lose and perhaps more to gain, while their neighbors aren't there yet. Eritrea, let's be honest, has a strong intact army, they are watching closely and may or may NOT get involved, depending on what occurs next; but the Amara's are being pushed to get that desperate.
They aren't quite there yet, but who knows what may occur next...I'd advise them to compromise and form an alliance with other groups, such as oromo federalists who aren't extremists, and others, on a genuinely win-win basis, otherwise, things may get difficult for them to say the least.
Having members of their fano, openly say oromia is ours, ethiopia is ours, we're the rulers, etc etc, only alienates themselves and isolates themselves, which is the opposite of what occurred when they were apart of the alliance that sent the tplf into oblivion. Even the super-powers do not go to war without allies (USA-Nato, etc) for the most part!

[Axumezana]

Isaias is too desperate for failing to destroy TPLF and Abiy is too desperate for failing to stabilize Ethiopia and it's sphere of control in Ethiopia is narrowing toward Addis Ababa. TPLF knows it can buy time by playing the peace card as per the Peace Agreement, while preparing itself for the worst which is the reinvasion of Tigray by Isaias with tacit approval of Abiy. Abiy and Isaias can not trust to each other which has given TPLF the opportunity to further divide them and use one against each other. The most probable scenario is TPLF and PP to form a tactical alliance with a shared goal of stabilizing Ethiopia and if Isaias fails to vacate Tigray/ Ethiopian lands jointly attacking him both toward Assab and Adi Halo. The end game is Isaias shall be toppled and Eritrea shall be like Libya and under Ethiopia's control.PP reinforced with TPLF will have the critical mass to stabilize Ethiopia and FANO and OLA will have no option but to agree on peaceful reconcilation with Abiy.