Mereja Forum

[Messele Zewdie Ejeta]

In over a century of recorded precipitation data, California had the wettest water year in 1983; a water year in the hemisphere runs from the beginning of October of the previous year to the end of September of the current year.

That year nearly coincided with the extreme drought conditions in 1984 in East Africa.

I tried to do a preliminary analysis of a potential association of the extreme wet conditions in the west coast of the United States and the extreme dry conditions in East Africa.

A proceeding paper of this preliminary analysis was published by the American Society of Civil Engineers. Here is a link to it: A Tale of Hydrological Extremes from the West Coast United States to East Africa

This analysis was a continuation of a research about the predictability of meteorological variability. Here is a link to the main peer reviewed paper about this research: Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries

It is hard to say whether the current flooding in Kenya can be attributed to the climate crisis or natural variability.

My research was an attempt to attribute climate change to elevated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and natural variability.

Interested researchers may find these papers helpful for further research.